Jonathan at Past Peak has a post up today that discusses the danger inherent in the proposal for a peacekeeping force coming out of the Bush-Blair meeting yesterday. If a peacekeeping force is made up of American troops or even includes American troops, the inevitability of their engaging or being attacked by Hezbollah forces isn’t really in doubt. So why is this an option?
First, the White House and the rest of the Cheney Administration regard Hezbollah the same way that hard-line supporters of the Israeli Right regard Hezbollah—as a wholly owned subsidiary of Iran, acting at Teheran’s behest. Seeing Hezbollah this way, with the Administration already locked in an escalating struggle with Iran, the current shooting war between Hezbollah and Israel provides the Administration with a reason to insert their interests, come what may.
If the US becomes part of the force in South Lebanon and is attacked by Hezbollah, the US reaction could well be against Iran, rather than solely against Hezbollah. Never mind that many intelligence sources doubt that Iran exerts the kind of direct operational control the Administration claims they have over Hezbollah. Never mind that the US public won’t settle for an attack on Iran over the nuclear issue. If an American force is attacked in Lebanon, the Administration would have a domestic blank check to respond militarily against Iran.
Cheney and Co. have already pursued one war for their own reasons, without opening their aims up to an honest debate. Slipping into another war, particularly when their domestic political backs are against the wall isn’t too far fetched to imagine. The circumstances leading to the insertion of a US force into another part of the Middle East may not be of the Administration’s making, but only the very innocent would ignore the idea that this crowd could use the situation to advance their aims vis a vis Iran.
Americans should be concerned, vocally concerned, that a peacekeeping force in South Lebanon not be comprised of American or American proxy troops. Nothing good can come of American military involvement. Whether the Administration actually wants to confront Iran or not, the inevitability of an attack on any American forces put there is clear. If this happens, there will certainly be an American military response. The resulting chaos would likely put the US simultaneously into two Middle East wars. Anyone who thinks that’s an idea whose time has come can only be smoking from Dick Cheney’s pipe.
A cease-fire, followed by a mutually accepted UN buffer force might cool down the violence. But the United States isn’t seen as an honest broker in the region, much less a potentially positive military party to the solution. So long as the Administration intends only to back and supply additional arms to the Israelis, while virtually ignoring the destruction of Lebanon, the Administration is actually exacerbating the crisis, rather than alleviating it.