Juan Cole’s post and Salon.com article on the fixed election in Iran are both worthwhile reading. There’s lot’s of good detail there on the probably hastily-organized and clumsy doctoring of the results— and why they are so improbable. He sees the “soft coup” holding and Moussavi probably backing down from sending his supporters into the streets. The memories of the bloody civil strife of the 1980’s are key for his generation of reformers in shying away from direct conflict.
Cole also notes his support for the Obama overtures to Iran, regardless of the real outcome.